What is happening in México? When will the outbreak hit us?
Cleaning your hands the proper way will protect better against infection, click here to check the advice on how to do it from the WHO.
Much information is going around the world, but if you live in Mexico you now that by now Friday March 13th, there are only 18 people infected with COVID-19, 4 people have already recovered and 12 more still in contiguous stage.
The university commission for the coronavirus emergency attention of UNAM (Autonomous National University of Mexico) warned that according to their mathematical data, COVID-19 will reach 2nd phase of the spread in mexico by March 21st. That means the spread will not be for immediate contact with someone is known to have the disease, but it will spread by unknown carriers that don’t even know they have the virus.
The arrival of the virus to Mexico was imminent as basically any other country in the world, the best thing is to be well informed by official sources.
As we have written in our previous article, we mentioned how to be prepared and what to do if you get the disease. Click here to read it.
So far all the cases in México have been imported, that means have been brought by people who travel to places where the COVID-19 was already in contagious stages.
The commissioner of Health Prevention and Promotion Hugo Lopez-Gatell has said the virus can not be contained and the arrival of the virus to Mexico was imminent, however people shouldn’t panic but that it is important to be precautious about our sanitary habits.
Despite the commissioner has accepted that in 15 days Mexico could get into the community spread/transmision to hundreds of cases, he also has said that 13 cases confirmed is not enough to restrict social, working or school activities.
Mexico is following the international protocol and has been working very carefully to be ready to respond to have hundreds of cases with COVID-19. They have 3 scenarios, and we have already past the first one:
1.- IMPORT OF COVID-19
2.- COMMUNITY SPREAD
3.- EPIDEMIC SPREAD
Doctor in Mathematics Gustavo Cruz, collaborator of the Institute of research in Applied Mathematics and Systems of UNAM, had worked on develop a mathematical model during the pandemic of influenza H1N1 in 2009 to predict the spread speed of that virus. To establish it was considered 2 factors: biological and social.
For 2020 the mathematician is working on a new exclusive model for the coronavirus and explained the spread is inevitable and the infectious outbreak will take between March 20-30th.
The containment measures taken by the governments around the world and the repercussions on the population behaviour. As an example: China and Italy have declared quarantines, that is a very effective strategy, and only certain business with basic products will be open to supply people, social gatherings and meetings in open spaces or public events were also forbidden in order to stop or contain the spread. This is why it is believed that China to keep citizens under quarantines at their houses is the only country that has been able to control the infectious outbreak and even has managed to get the number of cases on the low. No wonder why Italy has decided to do the same. The US has already banned flights from and to China and Europe, and we are sure that more extreme measures will be taken to also avoid a higher spread/outbreak.
If you live in Mexico or any other country, outbreak is imminent. If you don’t need to be outside, please stay at home, get ready for this by preparing all you might need (food, water, toiletries, medical supplies, disinfectant, etc. that at least can last for a month) during the outbreak. Avoiding public acts is also a smart thing to do, don´t wait until the governments take drastic actions to contain the virus and avoid as much as possible an uncontrollable outbreak. It is our duty to take care and protect ourselves but also the others.
Mexico still in on stage one of spread, but don’t wait for the second stage of community spread/outbreak to take actions.
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